This Chinese version was recorded in 1988, released in 1989.經典金曲~~越聽越有味道
SOUL RECYCLE BIN 我手寫我心 人生應該做自己想做的事 而不是應付別人要你做的事 只有這樣 你才找得到人生的意義 以及真正的快樂 I speak loudly, through my clubs.Welcome------------------------------ Thanks for visiting my Multiply site! This is where I'm keeping all my stuff from now on, so come back whenever you want to see what's new. Feel free to post a reply if you see something you like .
2009/10/26
2009/10/21
Be patient
恆生指數自本年三月的萬一點低位開始回升，到昨日的兩萬二千三百點高位，升幅已經接近一倍，在全球各國熱錢的推動下，港股完全沒有回吐機會，許多投資者正在擔心，港股已經出現泡沫。香港股市過去數十年泡沫與股災的資料，除了73年那次股災外，之後跌幅大於五成的股災一共有五次(上表)，這幾次股市泡沫爆破的共同特徵皆是熱錢充斥香港，恆指估值被推高至市盈率廿倍或以上，以昨天恆指收市價22,385點計，港股往績市盈率已經達到19.6倍，但本年下半年與明年，公司的業績將會好轉，未來公司營利可以支持現在較高的恆指市盈率估值。
現在還可以買貨嗎? 港股現在升幅巨大，是否應該沽貨離場? 我認為買賣股票應該以公司估值做依據，實行低買高賣，現在入貨的好時機已經過去，但預計明年全球經濟將會復甦，在未來公司營利持續增長下，現價沽貨實屬不智，我們是長線投資者，連百年一遇的金融海嘯都能夠捱過，就算未來股市回調又如何? 只要大家手上持有的是優質股票，未來這些股票的股價只會大漲小回，如果大家再儲到現金，股市回跌是再買入的機會，簡單來講，長揸優質股票必然致富，未來自然能達致財務自由。以人生歷程來講，初生之犢最無耐性，你要個三歲小孩坐定定，比牽牛上樹更難，在投資市場上，最沒耐性一族就是那些每天炒出炒入的投機賭徒，他們是未曾經長大的孩子，既天真，又很傻。孩子都有成長的一天，希望你們學懂耐性，投資致富自然手到拿來。
2009/10/12
2009/9/18
2009/9/14
Ten Bubbles in the Making
The Business Insider, Sept. 14, 2009:
One year after America 's brush with economic catastrophe, there's plenty of looking back at the bubbles that caused financial chaos.
But what's next?
There are surely dangerous economic bubbles forming as we speak. As Alan Greenspan warned this week, "They [financial crises] are all different, but they have one fundamental source," he said. "That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue."
The trick, of course, is spotting them. By definition, most people don't spot a bubble before they form and burst.
Here's 10 for which you should be on alert:
1. China bubble: Despite the weak global economy, the Chinese stock market has soared like crazy this year. But many believe the rally has been driven purely by government-supplied liquidity, rather than fundamentals. The fear is that companies are flush with cash, but have little "real" to do with the cash, so they're parking it in the stock market casino. The Chinese real estate market appears to be on a similar trajectory.
2. Green bubble: Green has been everywhere. With observers saying the "Age of Cleantech and Biotech" will be the next major economic revolution, and Washington pouring billions of dollars into alternative energy projects, you'd think a bubble would have already formed. But, as we noted this spring, it did not, at least from an investment perspective.
Still, as the economic recovery takes shape, alternative energy could see excess investment on hopes of big future returns. There's plenty of hype left, and if investors regain the cash to get in the game, could green become the next internet or housing bubble?
3. Gold bubble: Gold prices just keep going up. They've risen for seven straight years, recently breaking $1,000 per ounce.
Is it a bubble? Right now, it doesn't look too bad. Gold is good in both inflationary and deflationary periods, as it holds wealth tangibly. And, as the Telegraph notes, there's real demand, especially from China .
But with some predicting a doubling of prices to $2,000 an ounce, too many people could jump in and spike the real value of the precious metal. The "rise forever" mentality usually means trouble.
4. Federal Reserve bubble: Is the Fed saving the financial system or creating another dangerous credit bubble by snapping up mortgage-backed securities?
At first glance, the Fed's effort to clean up mortgage-backed securities is a winner. But, as Heidi Moore wrote for Slate's The Big Money, the Fed is actually creating a bubble similar to the one it's trying to do damage control on. By eagerly trying to save banks and stabilize the housing market, Washington is taking on too much: $1.25 trillion of mortgaged-backed securities, including both the original toxic assets and products of foreclosures to come. So who would bail the Fed out? You.
Click here to view the 10 bubbles in the make slide show.
5. Trash stock bubble: There's a rush to trash going on. Stocks like Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), AIG (AIG) and even GM made big runs in August -- trading in trash financials made up nearly one-third of NYSE's August volume.
So why are people buying junk? Charlie Gasparino says shares of junk financials -- companies like Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Citi and Bank of America -- are being pushed up by a short squeeze. The Wall Street Journal suspects its high frequency traders. And others say its retail speculation and day traders getting their way while Wall Street went on vacation.
6. Education bubble: More people are going back to college and taking on huge debt to do it, despite questions about what the degree is really worth.
Last year, the amount borrowed by students and received by schools grew some 25% over the previous year, to $75.1 billion. That's a huge amount, especially with weak, low-paying job prospects for graduates in this economy.
As we've noted, all this student loan debt is crazy. Despite the desire to see more subsidization of college, we suspect there will be a collapse in student loan debt availability and desire to take on new debt.
Short of telling kids not to go to college, something's going to give.
The pop may be starting already. As Bloomberg reports, as many as one-third of all private colleges surveyed said they expected enrollment to drop in the next academic year. And almost 40 percent of those colleges said some of their students dropped out due to personal economic reasons and a quarter said full-time attendees switched to part time. Half said families had to cut back their expected contributions as the value of college savings plans dropped 21 percent last year.
7. Subprime bubble, 2.0: What are banks doing with all those subprime mortgages? They're repackaging with a higher rating -- "re-securitization of real estate mortgage investment conduits" -- and selling them.
As we've noted, it's a plan nearly identical to the complicated investment packages of the financial crisis a year ago. That being said, the problem was not strictly securitization, but the underlying housing bubble. So the return of complicated products isn't necessarily the end of the world.
8. Life insurance securitization bubble: In its search for new profits, Wall Street is planning on securitizing “life settlements" -- policies that the sick and elderly can sell for cash while they're alive -- much like it did subprime mortgages. The New York Times warns that we could be looking at subprime all over again.
Maybe. As we've noted, it wasn't securitization that caused the financial meltdown. It was the bursting of the housing bubble. Yes, there was a feedback loop, whereby securitization allowed more money to flow towards housing, but it seems unlikely that "life settlements" would get big enough to infect all portions of the financial world.
9. Commercial real estate bubble: This bubble is already hissing, if not popping outright.
While the economy is improving and some home sales are slowly coming back, the commercial real estate market could get far worse.
As The New York Times reports, "Even though industry lobbyists were able to persuade Congress to extend a loan program aimed at prodding the stalled securitization market back to life, several analysts said it was unlikely to head off a spate of defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies that could surpass the devastating real estate crash of the early 1990s."
As UPI notes, commercial mortgage defaults could reach 4.1 percent by the end of the year, up from 2.25 percent in the first quarter, and Real Capital Analytics estimates commercial property loans worth $83 billion have been involved in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy in 2009.
Badly hit will likely be malls. "The next financial tsunami to hit will be the widespread failure of shopping center mortgages," says Peter Monroe, co-chair of REOMAC, a not for profit trade association to CNBC. "Half a trillion dollars of commercial loans financed on historically low rates, are due for refinancing in the next three years," says Monroe . "The negative impact of these shopping center mortgages is enormous."
10. Emerging market bubble: It's not just China . Risk-tolerant investors are bidding up emerging market shares to valuations not seen in 9 years. With an average PE of 20x, they're not in bubble territory just yet, but watch for things to get out of hand.
One year after America 's brush with economic catastrophe, there's plenty of looking back at the bubbles that caused financial chaos.
But what's next?
There are surely dangerous economic bubbles forming as we speak. As Alan Greenspan warned this week, "They [financial crises] are all different, but they have one fundamental source," he said. "That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue."
The trick, of course, is spotting them. By definition, most people don't spot a bubble before they form and burst.
Here's 10 for which you should be on alert:
1. China bubble: Despite the weak global economy, the Chinese stock market has soared like crazy this year. But many believe the rally has been driven purely by government-supplied liquidity, rather than fundamentals. The fear is that companies are flush with cash, but have little "real" to do with the cash, so they're parking it in the stock market casino. The Chinese real estate market appears to be on a similar trajectory.
2. Green bubble: Green has been everywhere. With observers saying the "Age of Cleantech and Biotech" will be the next major economic revolution, and Washington pouring billions of dollars into alternative energy projects, you'd think a bubble would have already formed. But, as we noted this spring, it did not, at least from an investment perspective.
Still, as the economic recovery takes shape, alternative energy could see excess investment on hopes of big future returns. There's plenty of hype left, and if investors regain the cash to get in the game, could green become the next internet or housing bubble?
3. Gold bubble: Gold prices just keep going up. They've risen for seven straight years, recently breaking $1,000 per ounce.
Is it a bubble? Right now, it doesn't look too bad. Gold is good in both inflationary and deflationary periods, as it holds wealth tangibly. And, as the Telegraph notes, there's real demand, especially from China .
But with some predicting a doubling of prices to $2,000 an ounce, too many people could jump in and spike the real value of the precious metal. The "rise forever" mentality usually means trouble.
4. Federal Reserve bubble: Is the Fed saving the financial system or creating another dangerous credit bubble by snapping up mortgage-backed securities?
At first glance, the Fed's effort to clean up mortgage-backed securities is a winner. But, as Heidi Moore wrote for Slate's The Big Money, the Fed is actually creating a bubble similar to the one it's trying to do damage control on. By eagerly trying to save banks and stabilize the housing market, Washington is taking on too much: $1.25 trillion of mortgaged-backed securities, including both the original toxic assets and products of foreclosures to come. So who would bail the Fed out? You.
Click here to view the 10 bubbles in the make slide show.
5. Trash stock bubble: There's a rush to trash going on. Stocks like Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), AIG (AIG) and even GM made big runs in August -- trading in trash financials made up nearly one-third of NYSE's August volume.
So why are people buying junk? Charlie Gasparino says shares of junk financials -- companies like Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Citi and Bank of America -- are being pushed up by a short squeeze. The Wall Street Journal suspects its high frequency traders. And others say its retail speculation and day traders getting their way while Wall Street went on vacation.
6. Education bubble: More people are going back to college and taking on huge debt to do it, despite questions about what the degree is really worth.
Last year, the amount borrowed by students and received by schools grew some 25% over the previous year, to $75.1 billion. That's a huge amount, especially with weak, low-paying job prospects for graduates in this economy.
As we've noted, all this student loan debt is crazy. Despite the desire to see more subsidization of college, we suspect there will be a collapse in student loan debt availability and desire to take on new debt.
Short of telling kids not to go to college, something's going to give.
The pop may be starting already. As Bloomberg reports, as many as one-third of all private colleges surveyed said they expected enrollment to drop in the next academic year. And almost 40 percent of those colleges said some of their students dropped out due to personal economic reasons and a quarter said full-time attendees switched to part time. Half said families had to cut back their expected contributions as the value of college savings plans dropped 21 percent last year.
7. Subprime bubble, 2.0: What are banks doing with all those subprime mortgages? They're repackaging with a higher rating -- "re-securitization of real estate mortgage investment conduits" -- and selling them.
As we've noted, it's a plan nearly identical to the complicated investment packages of the financial crisis a year ago. That being said, the problem was not strictly securitization, but the underlying housing bubble. So the return of complicated products isn't necessarily the end of the world.
8. Life insurance securitization bubble: In its search for new profits, Wall Street is planning on securitizing “life settlements" -- policies that the sick and elderly can sell for cash while they're alive -- much like it did subprime mortgages. The New York Times warns that we could be looking at subprime all over again.
Maybe. As we've noted, it wasn't securitization that caused the financial meltdown. It was the bursting of the housing bubble. Yes, there was a feedback loop, whereby securitization allowed more money to flow towards housing, but it seems unlikely that "life settlements" would get big enough to infect all portions of the financial world.
9. Commercial real estate bubble: This bubble is already hissing, if not popping outright.
While the economy is improving and some home sales are slowly coming back, the commercial real estate market could get far worse.
As The New York Times reports, "Even though industry lobbyists were able to persuade Congress to extend a loan program aimed at prodding the stalled securitization market back to life, several analysts said it was unlikely to head off a spate of defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies that could surpass the devastating real estate crash of the early 1990s."
As UPI notes, commercial mortgage defaults could reach 4.1 percent by the end of the year, up from 2.25 percent in the first quarter, and Real Capital Analytics estimates commercial property loans worth $83 billion have been involved in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy in 2009.
Badly hit will likely be malls. "The next financial tsunami to hit will be the widespread failure of shopping center mortgages," says Peter Monroe, co-chair of REOMAC, a not for profit trade association to CNBC. "Half a trillion dollars of commercial loans financed on historically low rates, are due for refinancing in the next three years," says Monroe . "The negative impact of these shopping center mortgages is enormous."
10. Emerging market bubble: It's not just China . Risk-tolerant investors are bidding up emerging market shares to valuations not seen in 9 years. With an average PE of 20x, they're not in bubble territory just yet, but watch for things to get out of hand.
2009/9/11
(Absolute Valuation)與(Relative Valuation)
港股先行調整，後再闖高峰。一些版塊不斷創出52周新高，例如汽車、工業、內銀、新能源、國內燃氣、科網等版塊，但一些版塊和股票則嚴重跑輸大市，這些轉馬行為可能正在反映市場資金的看法。
不過，近期最有趣的，便是金、股、債齊齊上升的景況。正常而言，不是金債上升股市跌(市場預期經濟進入上下波幅階段)、或股金齊升債市跌(市場預期嚴重通漲到臨)，便是股債上升金價跌(反映超低息環境和經濟開始步入復甦階段，但通漲仍未到臨)。個人感覺其中一項可能是煙幕，需要密切留意。
至於匯市方面，最顯眼的便是歐羅對美元匯率創出09年新高，可能反映市場對歐洲經濟復甦產生樂觀預期。不過，歐羅匯率不斷上升，這對歐洲經濟包括出口市場等的影響如何，真是不得而知了。
近期巴菲特對股市開始產生憂慮，格老聲言環球金融危機將會重臨，但市場過氣股神發表看好後市等言論，另有調查指出近乎90%的基金經理看好後市，看來市場機遇與風險的天坪可能已開始從一方擺向另一方。不過，現階段的整體市場估值仍未到達嚴重泡沫程度，超低息環境亦有利資產價格，但始終是需要格外留神才行。
絕對估值(Absolute Valuation)與相對估值(Relative Valuation)股票的估值法是基本的基礎分析，是投資的基本功，所以一定要學習，估值法可分為絕對估值(absolute valuation)與相對估值(relative valuation)兩種，我先講絕對估值的方法。
絕對估值話明絕對，就即係實牙實齒出個實數。分析公司未來現金流的方法有現金折流法(discount cash flow; DCF)，呢個公式不用死記，網上有計算機可以參考:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/valuation/dcf.htm
如果用穩定的十年派息數據，計算出匯豐估值是170蚊，但經過金融海嘯，匯豐派息大減，DDM的估值法已經不能再應用於匯豐的估值，馬後炮又說明，就算是絕對估值，亦不能確保你的估值未來可以對現。壽險公司的絕對估值方法有內涵價值(Embedded Value)，這個是公司用精算計出來的數據，是調整後股東資產淨值再加上該集團有效人壽保險業務的總值。地產公司的絕對估值可用資產淨值(Net Asset Value; NAV)，這個數據要計算公司的土地儲備、發展中物業(興建中及待售住宅)、以及投資物業(如寫字樓、酒店)三類的總值，如果要求簡單，可參考財務報表中的資產淨值(Equity)數據。理論上，如果公司股價低於絕對估值是抵買，高於絕對估值是偏貴，但理論是死的，理論一定要活用於實戰，例如宏利08年EV一百八十幾蚊，現價低於EV，而中人壽上半年EV十個幾，現價是EV三倍，咁中人壽唔係比宏利貴好多? 但如果再看未來增長與公司質素，中人壽才是長揸之選。
估值方法有絕對估值(Absolute Valuation)與相對估值(Relative Valuation)兩種， 話明相對估值，就是以股價相對於某組數據的比率。以股價相對於營利的比率是市盈率(Price to Earnings Ratio; P/E)，這個大家應該熟識，不贅； 以市價相對於資產淨值的比率是市帳率(Price to Book Ratio; P/B)，這個適用於以資產計價的公司如地產股與銀行股；計算保險股的估值可以用市價/內涵值(P/EV)；如果計算增長股的估值，可加入增長(Growth; G)作分母，例如PEG(P/E/G)與PEVG(P/EV/G)比率。相對估值方法的好處是容易計算，與歷史數據比較或同時期的其他公司比較亦較容易，因為相對估值只是一個比率而不是一個實數，所以估值的高低可以任由分析員或財演去演繹，估值偏低或偏高沒有一定的準則，散戶好容易被數據老點，好多時相對估值的高低只反映股價受市場情緒的影響，對公司內在價值的評估無大幫助。 以上是估值方法的簡單介紹，如果你們有心鑽研各種估值方法，我建議大家看這本書: Damdaran on Valuation (2nd Edition). Security Analysis for Investment and Corporate Finance，這本書賣百幾美金，Damodaran 教授好好人，明知有些窮人無錢買書，於是免費供應了網上版: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/valuation/val.htm給有興趣學財務的人士學習，這是最基礎的基本分析。
不過，近期最有趣的，便是金、股、債齊齊上升的景況。正常而言，不是金債上升股市跌(市場預期經濟進入上下波幅階段)、或股金齊升債市跌(市場預期嚴重通漲到臨)，便是股債上升金價跌(反映超低息環境和經濟開始步入復甦階段，但通漲仍未到臨)。個人感覺其中一項可能是煙幕，需要密切留意。
至於匯市方面，最顯眼的便是歐羅對美元匯率創出09年新高，可能反映市場對歐洲經濟復甦產生樂觀預期。不過，歐羅匯率不斷上升，這對歐洲經濟包括出口市場等的影響如何，真是不得而知了。
近期巴菲特對股市開始產生憂慮，格老聲言環球金融危機將會重臨，但市場過氣股神發表看好後市等言論，另有調查指出近乎90%的基金經理看好後市，看來市場機遇與風險的天坪可能已開始從一方擺向另一方。不過，現階段的整體市場估值仍未到達嚴重泡沫程度，超低息環境亦有利資產價格，但始終是需要格外留神才行。
絕對估值(Absolute Valuation)與相對估值(Relative Valuation)股票的估值法是基本的基礎分析，是投資的基本功，所以一定要學習，估值法可分為絕對估值(absolute valuation)與相對估值(relative valuation)兩種，我先講絕對估值的方法。
絕對估值話明絕對，就即係實牙實齒出個實數。分析公司未來現金流的方法有現金折流法(discount cash flow; DCF)，呢個公式不用死記，網上有計算機可以參考:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/valuation/dcf.htm
如果用穩定的十年派息數據，計算出匯豐估值是170蚊，但經過金融海嘯，匯豐派息大減，DDM的估值法已經不能再應用於匯豐的估值，馬後炮又說明，就算是絕對估值，亦不能確保你的估值未來可以對現。壽險公司的絕對估值方法有內涵價值(Embedded Value)，這個是公司用精算計出來的數據，是調整後股東資產淨值再加上該集團有效人壽保險業務的總值。地產公司的絕對估值可用資產淨值(Net Asset Value; NAV)，這個數據要計算公司的土地儲備、發展中物業(興建中及待售住宅)、以及投資物業(如寫字樓、酒店)三類的總值，如果要求簡單，可參考財務報表中的資產淨值(Equity)數據。理論上，如果公司股價低於絕對估值是抵買，高於絕對估值是偏貴，但理論是死的，理論一定要活用於實戰，例如宏利08年EV一百八十幾蚊，現價低於EV，而中人壽上半年EV十個幾，現價是EV三倍，咁中人壽唔係比宏利貴好多? 但如果再看未來增長與公司質素，中人壽才是長揸之選。
估值方法有絕對估值(Absolute Valuation)與相對估值(Relative Valuation)兩種， 話明相對估值，就是以股價相對於某組數據的比率。以股價相對於營利的比率是市盈率(Price to Earnings Ratio; P/E)，這個大家應該熟識，不贅； 以市價相對於資產淨值的比率是市帳率(Price to Book Ratio; P/B)，這個適用於以資產計價的公司如地產股與銀行股；計算保險股的估值可以用市價/內涵值(P/EV)；如果計算增長股的估值，可加入增長(Growth; G)作分母，例如PEG(P/E/G)與PEVG(P/EV/G)比率。相對估值方法的好處是容易計算，與歷史數據比較或同時期的其他公司比較亦較容易，因為相對估值只是一個比率而不是一個實數，所以估值的高低可以任由分析員或財演去演繹，估值偏低或偏高沒有一定的準則，散戶好容易被數據老點，好多時相對估值的高低只反映股價受市場情緒的影響，對公司內在價值的評估無大幫助。 以上是估值方法的簡單介紹，如果你們有心鑽研各種估值方法，我建議大家看這本書: Damdaran on Valuation (2nd Edition). Security Analysis for Investment and Corporate Finance，這本書賣百幾美金，Damodaran 教授好好人，明知有些窮人無錢買書，於是免費供應了網上版: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/valuation/val.htm給有興趣學財務的人士學習，這是最基礎的基本分析。
2009/9/9
命運在我手,買咗好股唔好隨便放走
香港社會愈來愈有趣，有些新奇的職業是過去無的，例如有種叫財務策劃師，為你策劃你一生人的財務管理，目的是幫你盡早達到財務自由，點解以前沒有這種職業? 你阿媽無教你理財咩? 或是現代人唔識照顧自己，阿媽不在，都要找個專家指點指點，咁有小朋友的父母是否需要一個孩子成長輔導師，幫孩子策劃未來? 學生們是否需要一個學業策劃師去計劃未來的求學路程? 年青男女們會否需要一個戀愛與婚姻輔導師，幫助自己找個伴侶，策劃一下未來的戀愛與婚姻? 出來社會做事的朋友有否需要一個職業前途輔導師，去計劃你未來人生的事業? 快退休的人士一定需要退休生活策劃師吧! 老人家一定需要安享晚年養老策劃師了! 咁你死後唔係需要個身後事策劃師?
原來現代人需要別人幫自己安排一切，不懂得計劃自己的將來，可能你是伊斯蘭教或是耶教的教徒，死後必定能夠上天堂享福，在生時候，你的命運也甘願被人操縱，又可能你被成龍講中，中國人是要管的，再可能你響往西方的理想國與烏托邦，甘願放棄本身的自由，做其社會中的奴隸，唔怪得各路財經演員都經常可以老點一眾散戶，話投資只可以趁勢，個勢比你賺幾多，你就只可以賺咁多，如果個勢逆轉，你就只可以輸少當贏，輸錢是應該的，贏錢是各財演的功勞。本人心中，一無宗教，二無君上，三無夢想之國，只想追求自由自在的生活，樂意去經歷人世間的悲歡離合，笑看投資市場的升跌起落，以長線投資的心態去追求財務自由，你也可以跟我一樣，因為命運在你手。
原來現代人需要別人幫自己安排一切，不懂得計劃自己的將來，可能你是伊斯蘭教或是耶教的教徒，死後必定能夠上天堂享福，在生時候，你的命運也甘願被人操縱，又可能你被成龍講中，中國人是要管的，再可能你響往西方的理想國與烏托邦，甘願放棄本身的自由，做其社會中的奴隸，唔怪得各路財經演員都經常可以老點一眾散戶，話投資只可以趁勢，個勢比你賺幾多，你就只可以賺咁多，如果個勢逆轉，你就只可以輸少當贏，輸錢是應該的，贏錢是各財演的功勞。本人心中，一無宗教，二無君上，三無夢想之國，只想追求自由自在的生活，樂意去經歷人世間的悲歡離合，笑看投資市場的升跌起落，以長線投資的心態去追求財務自由，你也可以跟我一樣，因為命運在你手。
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